Anybody Can WIN It in Nigeria, Forget the Pundits And “Structural Engineers” of Politics
Many have written that Obi and Kwankwaso do not have nationwide political structures like Tinubu and Atiku to win the Nigerian presidency next year. This is my response:
My Response: Mobile internet is reducing information asymmetry as more voters can bypass the filters and intermediaries to get information from the sources. The existence of information asymmetry makes market systems imperfect. In politics, it does the same thing – imperfect electoral systems.
But in 2023, Nigeria will have the first mobile internet era election. This is the first app utility-anchored national election. I am not arguing that decades-old political structures are not important, my point is that disintermediation (cutting out intermediaries) is evident, and general voters have access to more information about candidates now, to make decisions independently, out of the influence of political bundlers and brokers.
Registration for Tekedia Mini-MBA (Feb 6 – May 6 2023) has started. Click and register here. Cost is N60,000 or $140 for the 12-week program if you register by Dec 16, 2022. Beat the early bird for free books, discounts and other bonuses.
The Ezes, Obas, Amanyanabos and Emirs influenced many past elections through zone defense and zone offense (as in football) via block voting, being custodians of information; the village head determined the candidates for most villagers.
In 2023, that will not happen because they do not have exclusivity on the information about candidates. This makes the paths wide open for candidates because the Best Message will WIN depending on how INEC behaves. The power of aggregation construct is now strong.
Indeed, the greatest danger is using old tools to model new systems. Think of when many Wall Street experts predicted that Tesla would go bankrupt, using models developed for Ford, Toyota and GM, for a car company that has unleashed new vistas of innovation.
If you use old political tools to evaluate new political systems, you will lose. President Trump did rallies during the pandemic and modeled his acceptability based on the crowd-size when Biden did none. After the elections and results counted, he realized that new technologies and evolving engaging patterns have changed many things and early voting made many of those rallies useless; some precincts had voted in excess of 50% before his rallies!
Young People, if anyone tells you that your candidate has no chance; ignore him or her. Indeed, if tech changes markets, it can change politics in Nigeria. The most valued financial institution in Nigeria is Flutterwave. Its market cap can buy GTBank* and Zenith Bank combined. It took Kuda bank 3 years to hit a milestone which took Wema bank more than 70 years. It is 0-0 at full time and they are getting into sudden-death extra time, with every candidate positioned to score that first goal to win it.
Continue to work for your candidate, and forget anyone who thinks because he is a “structural engineer” from the school of Nigerian politics, that only his party has an edge. If INEC does it work, this election is the most OPEN.
Via Professor Ndubuisi Ekekwe
